Even after this global situation we’re still seeing a lot of activity in this space, and a lot of excitement.
- 1 When will this activity and excitement translate into higher crypto altcoin prices?
When will this activity and excitement translate into higher crypto altcoin prices?
Though crypto prices have bounced off January lows, it’s too soon to say we’re through this bout of weakness. However, sector fundamentals remain strong, technicals are intact, and Bitcoin whales have been buying.
Returning to market conditions today, crypto investors shouldn’t be expecting massive returns anytime soon. There are still too many headwinds. The market is under fire from inflation, the Fed, and now a potential geopolitical conflict in Europe. Until those issues are resolved, cryptos will remain highly volatile. However, we believe last week’s resilience is indicative of the fact that whatever pain cryptos do endure over the next few weeks at the hands of these macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds will be largely mitigated by robust buying support. In other words, cryptos aren’t going to soar immediately from here – but barring a “Black Swan” risk, they won’t collapse either. Rather, they’ll stumble about until issues surrounding inflation and the Fed are resolved, at which point the whole crypto market will likely take a big leg higher, led by Bitcoin powering.
It’s worth noting that Bankman-Fried shares Charlie and Luke’s perspective on the Fed’s substantial impact on the crypto market:
To the extent that Fed policy remains one of the core drivers of market movements, I think we’re going to continue to see that pretty strong correlation over the next, probably, months.
What it means for Crypto?
We have nervous investors, historic inflation, geopolitical risk, and a hawkish Fed – not a great combo for crypto, or many investment markets, for that matter. We’re bullish that Bitcoin has held its multi-month uptrend dating back to the start of shaded below. We’re also bullish on the Relative Strength Index RSI, at the bottom, which has swung powerfully from below to above in a matter of days – a bullish indicator that last happened in September and July .
what will be the next cryptocurrency to explode?
They highlight accounting giant, KPMG, which agreed to add both Bitcoin and to its balance sheet last week. Recall that, in our outlook for , we identified large corporations adding cryptos to their balance sheets as a huge potential upside catalyst. It looks like that catalyst is materializing as hoped. We expect more major corporations to follow suit in the coming months, and each new company will add more buying firepower into the crypto market. This demand also importantly provides a floor for Bitcoin prices, much as institutions buying stocks provides a floor for their prices. It is hard to buy any asset when prices are in the gutter. As investors, we tend to extrapolate and expect further declines. That’s why it can be incredibly helpful to ask a follow-up question as you evaluate a purchase. In addition to considering
What’s the likelihood that the price keeps dropping?
This second question helps relieve investors from the burden of perfection. After all, no one can time markets perfectly. But perfect isn’t required to make significant wealth. After all, logic suggests that the whales had to be financially savvy enough to amass their huge wealth in the first place. So, one could argue that the same intelligence or access to information that helped them become rich is now informing them about investing in this specific class. Addresses with , Bitcoin or more have added a combined , coins to their wallets since December , marking the most rapid accumulation of Bitcoin by whales since September .
Therefore, this accumulation does not necessarily mean Bitcoin prices are going higher. But it does mean that the “big money” is getting very bullish.
In short, this is a time in which the markets are maturing, and it’s going to become harder and harder to pick out the cryptos that are worth their salt. On the other hand, certain top-tier altcoins will become tomorrow’s household names, creating enormous wealth in the process.
Does that mean price action will follow suit immediately?
Not necessarily. There are too many macro risk factors at play today to push cryptos significantly higher in the near term. We suspect those headwinds will pass within the next few months, and therefore, we believe cryptos are due for a big surge with much of the firepower coming in the second half of the year.
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